If there’s one advantage to political opposition it’s that it gives parties a chance to take stock, look around, and rediscover their purpose. The Conservative Party, after 14 years embroiled in the compromises of governing, is now out of power with decisions to make. Last month, with our partners at centre-right think tank Bright Blue, we held a conference which aimed to start looking at the questions the party faces, and how it might back policies which improve living standards in Britain.
Speakers from politics, journalism and business agreed that to recover its fading position in the polls - and regain its mojo - the Conservative party needs to build a vision for improving lives that the public can begin to place faith in. To do this, the party needs to identify what went wrong in 2024; agree on the challenges that need to be addressed; and find appealing solutions.
The first task for any credible new opposition is to tackle what went wrong. Speakers raised failures of leadership and delivery, with key pledges broken - former Minister and now Shadow Housing Secretary Kevin Hollinrake MP notably charged ‘Levelling Up’ with failing to live up to expectations. Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Richard Fuller MP touched on a key topic for the future when pointing out, among several factors, a failure to reduce the tax and debt burden. To win back credibility, the centre-right must continue to honestly, publicly and sometimes painfully interrogate why living standards failed to sufficiently rise while it held power.
The second challenge is to settle on which problems to address. Building a growth-supporting and equitable tax system that rewards those in work and incentivises entrepreneurialism will always be a core aim of a centre-right policy blueprint, as it is across the political spectrum. Panellists argued that the ‘complicated’ tax system has been distortive and creates perverse incentives that hold back the economy and stifle growth. There was support for the IFS’ Helen Miller when she proposed that the tax system could be reformed for greater fairness and efficiency at the same time. Nonetheless, major questions remain around the extent of structural change - such as in the tax system - that the centre-right both believes Britain needs and has an appetite for delivering.
Tensions become most obvious when the centre-right begins to look at the solutions it can sell to voters. Despite Ipsos Mori setting out the public’s expectation for and acquiescence over tax rises, and journalists setting out the deterioration of public services, the politicians were inclined to underline their priority to reduce the tax burden. However, former MP John Penrose interestingly challenged what he called the ‘indefensibility’ of the difference in taxation between earned and unearned income. This built on his words in last year’s Bright Blue essay collection, where he argued that the marginal effective tax rate means that ‘Britain taxes income in a thoroughly regressive way by systematically giving a better deal to the rich at the expense of the poor’. The difficult questions and tensions around why, how and where we tax needs to be thrashed out among those on the centre-right, just as it does across all the benches in Westminster.
The opposition plays an important role helping to construct policies which improve living standards. To make a real impact, the centre-right needs to embrace difficult conversations about what it stands for and why. With the help of Bright Blue, it has made a start – with more to do.